German Spot Price Prognosis

Markedskraft offers a daily week-ahead spot price prognosis for the German power market. The German model is quite different from the Nordic due to thermal production being dominant in Continental Europe. The production system is divided into power generated from hydro, wind, nuclear, lignite, hard coal, gas and oil. Key elements in the model are hourly load forecasting, wind prognoses, power exchange with neighboring countries and hourly power generation. The 2-page analysis report gives an overview of fundamental factors such as temperature, load, wind power generation, available nuclear capacity and a total power balance culminating in a base/peak spot price prognosis for the next week.

German Forward Price Prognosis

Markedskraft offers a German forward price prognosis for the year-ahead base and peak products. The prognosis is made for the next 20 trading days, or about one calendar month into the future. We also provide a comparison of the traded next-year price and the "fundamentally justified" price where the last factor is made up of the spot price scenario for next year, the effect of CO2-quotas and a risk premium.

The report also includes fundamentally based prognoses for the Phelix price during the delivery period. These prognoses are based on three different fundamental scenarios. The report provides a historical overview of the coal price, the oil price, the EEX spot price, the currency ratio USD/EUR and the price of CO2-certificates. Also included is a fundamentally based calculation of German CO2 emissions relative to the totally available German emission quotas.

Technical Analysis

Markedskraft offers an advanced technical analysis service for the energy market. Customers subscribing to German Forward Price analysis will get analysis of the two first quarters and the two first years. The Technical Analysis contains all the important indicators: Moving Average (MA), Volume, On Balance Volume (OBV) , Bollinger Bands, Average Directonal Moving Index (ADX), Positive and Negative Directional Indicator (PI+/PI-), Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Comments are made every day.

Background material

A lot of background material is available on the web and/or for download. Consumption, wind forecast, temperature indexes updated 4 times a day, nuclear availability forecast and a lot more.

Alps Hydrology 

Markedskraft offers daily hydrological analysis for the Alps region including Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France and Italy. The analysis is based on 40 years of regional statistics and daily observations of river flow and precipitation. The service consists of both historical calculations and forecasts for temperature, for precipitation in energy terms (GWh/day), for inflow (GWh/day) and for run-of-river generation (MW/day). The latter has direct influence on the power prices in Europe. The energy inflow prognoses are based on HBV-models tailored to the Alps.

In addition to the daily updates, we provide a weekly hydro power overview for each of the countries France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria and Italy. This report provides net hydro production, hydro reservoir levels, snow/ground water reservoir and hydrological balance compared to the average situation. The hydro power influence on next week's European spot markets is also commented on.

Iberian Hydrology 

Markedskraft has developed precipitation models for Spain and Portugal, to be able to assess the level of snow in this area. Although the level of hydropower on the Iberian peninsula is smaller than the Alp and Nordic system the big variations makes it important to follow the variations.